Putting In to Port: Bucs 22, Falcons 17

It’s hard to read a lot into a game against a team that really has no reason to play hard, despite the Atlanta Falcons’ assurances they’d be trying to win.  They kept their starters in for the duration, but I have a hard time believing they were really giving it their all, what with no chance to improve their playoff seeding.  Still, the Bucs went on the road and beat one of the best teams in the NFL, ending their five-game losing streak and closing out 2012 on a winning note.

And that’s the significance of the win.  Regardless of how much effort the Falcons put forth, the Bucs went out and did what they had to do to beat them.  Doug Martin looked like a Rookie of the Year candidate again.  Josh Freeman didn’t look like a junkyard fire.  The pass defense actually stepped up and avoided setting the mark for most single season passing yards allowed in league history.  This wasn’t a game so much about the opponent’s attitude as it was the Bucs’ attitude, and ending on this kind of note can only mean good things.  First, it avoids double-digit losses.  Sure, 7-9 is still below .500, but there’s something about only seeing one number after the dash instead of two.  As a Bucs fan, I lived through plenty of those kinds of seasons back in the 80s and early 90s, and you can’t underestimate the psychological impact of 9 losses instead of 10.

Second, having the last time you took the field be a win instead of a loss can’t be overstated.  It’s an up note, a promise, and it’ll make cleaning out the lockers tomorrow feel a little more hopeful for a lot of guys.  There are some misguided Bucs fans bemoaning the fact that this win cost the Bucs a better draft pick, but being able to walk off as winners will do more good than being a slot or two higher in the crap shoot that is the draft.  Besides, our two best rookies came at the end of the first and the beginning of the second.  A top ten pick is no guarantee of quality.

Overall, I don’t think the Bucs were as good as they looked during their four-game winning streak, nor as bad as they looked during the five-game losing streak.  Those streaks sort of raised and lowered expectations outside of reasonable perspective.  Had it been a roller coaster season, winning one, losing two, winning two, losing one, 7-9 probably wouldn’t seem like such a disappointment to some.  The Bucs won some they should have lost, and lost some they should have won, but in the end, finished up as the kind of team they probably were all along, playoff flirtation aside:  a developing team still a year or two and some players away from being a contender.  This was the beginning of the process, not the culmination, and anyone upset that they didn’t see instant results is only fooling themselves.  The ship isn’t leaking anymore, and if the sails aren’t quite catching enough wind yet, at least the captain knows where he’s going.

Here’s to 2013.  May the cannons roar.

Running the Ship Aground and Hoping to Escape Alive: Rams 28, Bucs 13

Because there’s no more righting this ship at this point.  It’s just hoping to find a spot on the lifeboat and lasting long enough to get picked up.  For the second straight weekend, I skipped watching the Bucs game, although much of the choice in the matter was removed by the game being blacked out.  Last week, I was pretty sure it would be a slaughter. which it turned out to be. This week, I was sure it would be a frustratingly close game that the Bucs would either win in uninspiring fashion or boot away by playing down to their competition.  Not being in the mood to see either, I gave the game a pass, but my phone kept me up to date on the continuing downward spiral.

I’m convinced this is a team that can handle neither adversity or success.  When they play well, as they did during the four-game winning streak earlier this year, they eventually let it get to their heads and start to think all they have to do is show up and teams will roll over for them.  When that fails to happen and they lose a game, it’s as if they forget all the things they’d been doing right, and one loss becomes two becomes three.  They don’t have that mental toughness yet to realize nothing comes easy, yet nothing is as bad as it seems either.  I have a feeling Greg Schiano is taking note of who’s caved in and who’s playing hard, and some of those on that first list won’t be Buccaneers next year.

And I’m really starting to wonder if Josh Freeman won’t be on that list.  I keep hearing talking heads say that he needs to get more comfortable with the offense, that he needs to take some steps and he’ll be fine.  But we’ve been waiting for that for four years now, and it feels like every season it’s the same set of excuses.  He’s got all the tools, but his head just doesn’t seem into it.  Especially when you look at rookies like Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson who don’t seem to have any problems getting comfortable with their offenses.  If those three can have their teams in the playoffs in their first years, what does that say about Freeman being 12-19 over the last two seasons?  Yes, the pass defense is a mess, but you’d be surprised what a good offense can do to help a defense out.

The season ends next week against an Atlanta team that has nothing to play for.  Even with a win, it won’t feel like one.  All it will do is mark the beginning of a very important off-season for Schiano.  He needs to figure out who’s bought in, who hasn’t, and what he needs to do to get this team to take the next step.  Back to back losing seasons aren’t going to cut it, even if he wasn’t responsible for what happened last year.  There’s been some good done this season.  It just needs not to be squandered the way it has been over the last five weeks.

Righting the Ship Week 15: Saints 41, Bucs 0

I didn’t get to see this game due to playing in an X-Wing miniatures tournament in which I finished fifth.  I still had the better day.

But even if I had seen it, what’s there to say?  That’s a complete and utter embarrassment, completely undoing weeks of good work and seeming progress.  Everything is in question now, from Greg Schiano’s approach to Josh Freeman’s future.

Next week is the Bucs’ best chance not to end the season on a six-game losing streak as the Rams come to town. And they’ve got me wondering if they can do it.  Sure, 6-10 is an improvement over last year, and maybe if they’d gotten to this point by alternating wins and losses, it wouldn’t seem as bad.  And yes, the playoff talk was incredibly premature.  But to have been sitting at 6-4 and now sliding into oblivion with a bad loss to a bad team and an uncompetitive loss to a decent one, I just don’t feel like I can make excuses.

And that’s about 150 more words than this game deserved.

I might just go play X-Wing again next Sunday.

Righting the Ship Week 14: Eagles 23, Bucs 21

Okay, for the first time this season, I’m ticked off.  Not about the Bucs’ playoff chances taking a hit; that’s been a non-starter for me all year, so I haven’t really been invested in the possibility.  No, it was that the Eagles are the kind of team the Bucs should be able to come out and dominate.  A reeling team with a rookie quarterback and a defense in disarray, and the Bucs let them look like Donovan McNabb was still back there under center.  After bumbling through an awful first half, Tampa Bay scored 21 consecutive points, and it looked like they’d gotten things under control.  And while the pass defense did its usual disappearing ac t, it was the decision that put that them in that position that I really have a problem with.

On the Bucs’ final possession, Doug Martin was getting warmed up.  He’d broken off a few good runs, the Eagles had called all but one of their timeouts.  It was third and 8, and you could see the Eagles stacking up to stop the run. It seemed like the perfect time for a play action pass to get the first down, forcing the Eagles to call their final timeout and pretty much guaranteeing a win.  Instead, there was Martin going straight up the middle, right into a stuffed defensive line.  Timeout, punt, and the Eagles got the ball with a little over two minutes to go and the two-minute warning at their disposal.

I get it.  You want to run down the clock, you don’t want to risk an incompletion stopping it, or an interception turning the ball over.  But the Bucs have so many pass-catching weapons.  And they’d set up the Eagles to be vulnerable to play action.  It was a perfect time to be aggressive and not give the Eagles even a wisp of a chance.  And if they had to run the ball, why not something a little more imaginative than a dive up the gut?  A draw from the shotgun, something outside, anything but flying blind into a stacked line.  It was the safe play — if you hadn’t just watched Nick Foles put up over 300 yards on your defense.  There’s no way Greg Schiano should have trusted his pass defense to hold that lead.  Say what you want about giving them a vote of confidence; how about giving the entire team a boost and actually try to get that first down?

Instead, the Eagles marched down the field, taking advantage of two inexplicable defensive penalties, and of the continuing trend of receivers being completely wide open going over the middle against the defense.  A pass rush that had recorded six sacks up to that point suddenly couldn’t get any pressure, and the team gave up a 22-yard pass on 4th and five that put the ball on the one with two seconds to go.  I was ready to stop watching; I knew we were going to give up the TD.  I wasn’t even that upset when it happened, since it felt like such a certainty.  It was only dwelling on the loss afterwards that the frustration really kicked in.  All the hard work this team has done to dig itself out of a 2-4 hole feels like it’s down the drain as they slip back under .500 again.  This doesn’t feel like losing to the Falcons or Broncos, teams clearly better than the Bucs.  This was a bad team, and they played harder than the Bucs did.  And that should not happen.

And I’m back to being worried about Josh Freeman.  Yeah, he threw a couple of touchdowns, but he looked horrible again for huge chunks of the game.  Next year is the last year of his rookie contract, and the Bucs are going to have to make a decision about whether he’s The Guy, and if he should get paid like it.  And so far, with the better part of four seasons under his belt, I’m not seeing it.  There hasn’t been a sense of consistency, or improvement.  He’ll seem to take a step forward, then take two steps back.  He’s not terrible, but not terrible will keep you at 8-8 and 9-7 and getting knocked out of the first round.  These last three games will really be make or break for him, because I can’t imagine the Bucs wanting his contract situation hovering over next season.  Something has to click, or it could be time for a new quarterback come 2014.

I still like the direction the team is heading in.  I love what Schiano is doing.  And that’s exactly what makes losses like this just suck.  They should be better than this.

Righting the Ship Week 13: Broncos 31, Bucs 23

Don’t be fooled by that score; the game wasn’t that close.  Even when the Bucs held a 10-7 lead, this never felt like a game they were going to win.  Despite making it look respectable in the end, this was the first game of the season where the Bucs really looked like the team everyone thought they’d be this year.

A large part of that was the inevitability of Peyton Manning shredding the secondary.  Held in check much of the first half, Manning seemed less like a quarterback being stymied and more like a general probing for weaknesses, weaknesses he exploited in a third quarter in which the Broncos scored 21 points and all but decided the game.  If his receivers weren’t wide open, the coverage seemed to realize the ball was coming several seconds too late. Combine that with the return of 2011 Josh Freeman —  he was missing receivers badly, and making bad decisions on top of that — and the Broncos defense stacking the box to stop Doug Martin, and it was a game the Bucs simply weren’t going to win, regardless of them cutting the lead to one score late.

And while it wasn’t necessarily an unexpected loss, it was a tough one, because as the Bucs were beginning their game, Seattle was pulling off a miracle to win theirs, further tightening their grip on the final wildcard spot.  Not that I’ve been buying into the playoff hopes some have been holding out for the Bucs, but it’s looking more and more like whoever finishes second in the NFC North and NFC West will be the wildcards.  The Bucs would have to run the table to even have a shot, and I’m not sure they’ve got that in them, not with games remaining at Atlanta and at New Orleans.

But let’s be honest here:  who thought the Bucs would be 6-6 twelve games into the season?  There were predictions they wouldn’t win four games this year, let alone six, and with two winnable home games against the Eagles and Rams coming it, it’s possible the Bucs could finish at .500 for the season.  Probably not good enough for the playoffs this year, but 8-8 wouldn’t have me excited for this year.  That’s just gravy.  It’s next year that holds the promise.  This is still a young team learning how to play together, and to take a step like this so soon can only mean good things for the future.  This year is much more real than the 10-6 season Raheem Morris had a few years ago. That felt like a fluke.  This feels like a foundation being built.

Which doesn’t mean I won’t grumble and gripe about efforts like today.  I’m a fan, it’s what we do.  But they’re growing pains more than cries of futility.  It comes from actually expecting more than being resigned to less.  And that’s a welcome change.

Righting the Ship Week 12: Falcons 24, Bucs 23

The other shoe had to drop eventually.  That it was being worn by a team with one of the best records in the league wasn’t all that surprising.  What was surprising was that this wasn’t a case of the Bucs being completely outmatched.  No, what happened here was the Bucs giving the Falcons all they could handle, but just not having the experience — or the talent — to close the deal.

It looked like Atlanta sold out to stop Doug Martin, and aside from two short touchdowns and a handful of good runs, they pretty much held him in check.  That meant Josh Freeman needed to step up, and he did — in spots.  But the late-game mojo he was drenched in last week didn’t materialize this time around, especially in the red zone.  He missed a wide open Mike Williams on what would have been a sure touchdown, and just didn’t seem as sharp overall outside of the two touchdown drives.  It wasn’t a train wreck or a cause for concern; he just picked a lousy week to have a bad game.

Besides, it was the defense that really let this one get away.  The Bucs as they’re currently constructed simply aren’t good enough to stop an offense like Atlanta’s when it matters.  Third down after third down the Falcons extended drives, especially on their final drive where a first down allowed them to run the clock down to next to nothing.  Matt Bryant’s second missed field goal of the game gave the Bucs the faintest of chances, but a stop on that third down play would have given them more than a minute work with rather than twelve seconds, which left them with no option but to heave and hope.  Matt Ryan had all day to throw, his receivers had all day to get open, and that’s just not how you’re going to beat a 9-1 team.

And yet here I am not really all that upset about it.  Sure, it was worse to be so close to winning than to have gotten blown out, but this was a game I’d written off as a loss before the winning streak, and realistically, as good as that streak was, I still didn’t see a team that I thought could take Atlanta’s best shot.  And to lose this game and be 6-5 and still in the playoff hunt?  It’s not ideal, but it’s miles beyond where I guarantee you anybody thought the team would be right now.  I don’t want the team to be content with a moral victory — this is a game they could have and should have won, and they should be angry and motivated about not doing so — but I’m not ready to panic yet.

There’s plenty of time for that next when the Bucs go to Denver.

Righting the Ship Week 11: Bucs 27, Panthers 21

It was a small thing, but then again, football is often a game of many small things done right.  This thing was the moment when, despite having been ready to concede the game for most of the previous two quarters, I was certain the Bucs were going to win this game.  It came during their furious final drive of regulation, after Josh Freeman had hit Vincent Jackson for a first down with a little over twenty seconds to go.  Jackson jumped up, tossed the ball to the official, and sprinted to get in formation for the next play, which had to be a spike to kill the clock.  And practically the entire Bucs’ offense was already there to meet him.  Only two or three seconds ran off the clock because the team knew the situation, knew what they had to do, knew they had no time to waste.  That’s the kind of discipline that pulls out wins like the one the Bucs got today.

It was also the kind of discipline that was sorely lacking once the Bucs jumped out to a 10-0 lead.  Then Freeman single-handedly got the Panthers and their crowd back into the game with an ill-advised pass on third down in field goal range, a pass that was intercepted and run back for a touchdown.  And that seemed to flip the On switch for Carolina.  Panthers receivers only had to run a few yards down the field and cut sharply over the middle to get wide open.  The Bucs’ offense happily chipped in by seeming to forget it had Doug Martin and mostly becoming Freeman spraying the ball all over the place.  Then, when they finally put a drive together and appeared on the verge of scoring, it was ruled that Martin fumbled at the goal line (notice I saw “was ruled,” because he clearly scored before fumbling).  Carolina promptly scored again, and 10-0 had become 21-10 it looked like the ride was going to be over.

And then Freeman, Jackson and Martin stole Cam Newton’s schtick and each turned into Superman.  The throw he made on the touchdown to Jackson was an absolute laser, an amazing throw in a drive full of clutch throws, most of which seemed to go to Jackson.  Then in overtime, Martin torched a clearly tired and mentally defeated Panther’s defense.  The entire extra period felt like a foregone conclusion.  There wasn’t going to be a field goal; the Bucs were going to go down, get a touchdown, and send everybody home.

And that sense of certainty began with that hustle play near the end of the game.  Gone is the sloppy, disorganized team from last year that would have found a way to lose this game.  If Greg Schiano has done nothing else, he’s molded a team that never gives up.  And that’s helped them reel of four straight wins and put themselves right in the thick of the playoff chase.  Next week comes the real test:  the Atlanta Falcons, who suddenly look incredibly beatable.  But hell, even if the Bucs lose, 6-5 at this point in the season would be so far beyond expectations, I wouldn’t lose a wink over it.

Okay, maybe a wink or two.

Righting the Ship Week 10: Bucs 34, Chargers 24

It’s a testament to how badly burned Bucs fans feel after years of under-spending and Raheem Morris that, riding a two-game winning streak and sporting one of the hottest offenses in the league, they still couldn’t sell out yesterday’s game against the Chargers.  So I was once again forced to rely on the NFL’s Red Zone channel for glimpses of what was going on.  It’s not great for getting an overall picture of how the team played, but it’s better than the shoddy streaming version I found that was a good four minutes behind nothing.

Of course, with the way the offenses were playing in the first half, the game turned up on Red Zone quite a bit.  I’m willing to write off that first Chargers touchdown as a fluke, but the Bucs secondary proved they were more than happy to give up yardage via normal means as well.  Every time Red Zone cut to the game, there was Philip Rivers finding an open receiver, and usually on third and long.  The pass defense is the main reason I’m not getting on board with the playoff talk that so many want to start in on.  Sure, they buckled down in the second half, but it still took two huge defensive scores to keep the team in the game, something that can’t be consistently relied upon.

And yeah, Doug Martin came down to earth, but that was inevitable.  He still totaled 119 yards from scrimmage, but you knew the Chargers were going to do everything in their power to stop him, letting Josh Freeman be the one to beat them.  And while Freeman didn’t have a huge game either, he took what was there, made a few big plays when he needed to, and most importantly, didn’t turn the ball over (although he sure did try on a couple of iffy throws I saw).

The important thing is that the Bucs won a game when they weren’t exactly at their best.  The improvement just within this season is remarkable; this is a game this team loses if it’s Week 1 or 2, but now they’ve won three in a row and are above .500 for the first time in over a year.  It’s funny; I keep pointing to the next game as the one where the letdown will hit, and the Bucs keep winning them.  So I’m predicting a huge letdown next week in Charlotte!

Righting the Ship Week 9: Bucs 42, Raiders 32

Stepping away from the flaming ruin that is NaNoWriMo 2012 so far…

If last week’s Thursday night game had the potential to be a letdown, this one had it even more.  A longer week leading up to the game, a trip out west to a place where the Bucs have never won, perhaps a bit of overconfidence after beating the Vikings; this had all the earmarks of a classic egg-laying in the making.  And while LeGarrette Blount and the defense did their best late in the game to lay that egg, the Bucs made the plays they had to in order not to waste the monstrous day had by Doug Martin.

As I watched him break off his third long touchdown run of the game, I couldn’t help but giggle in disbelieving delight.  Each of his first three scoring jaunts was longer than the last one, and each showcased just why Martin is so damn good.  He accelerated through his holes.  He had the strength to break tackles and stiff-arm.  He had the moves to juke one Raiders player into a leg injury.  All behind a patchwork offensive line missing two Pro Bowlers.

Martin was just electric, which makes the decision to put Blount in for that one late series baffling, especially considering he promptly fumbled and put the Raiders right back in the game.  Martin’s already supplanted Blount as the #1 guy; his fumble today might place Blount’s position as the #2 guy in jeopardy.

As for the defense, with the shambles the secondary has become, I’m not surprised Carson Palmer lit them up.  It’s something the Bucs are simply going to have to deal with for the rest of the season.  They finally have an offense that can outscore people, but it’s really going to put a lot of pressure on the defensive line and linebackers to get pressure, or else we’ll see more days like Palmer had, even if it was in defeat.

Some optimistic fans are talking playoffs, but I think it’s way too early for that.  The Bucs have beaten one team with a winning record, a Vikings team that, between last week and their loss today, is being revealed as a bit of a fraud. They still have the Falcons twice, and I shudder to think what Matt Ryan will do to that secondary.  Am I happy they’ve matched their win total for all of last season by the midpoint of this one?  Yes.  I’m just not ready to put them in the playoffs just yet.  It’s too much too soon, and honestly, I’d rather enjoy the turnaround they’re having without than cast a shadow on it by getting up playoff hopes that might be dashed.  Now, if it’s late December and the Bucs are still hanging around, I might let myself go a bit.  But for now, I’ll just enjoy not being the total laughingstock the team was last year.

Righting the Ship Week 8: Bucs 36, Vikings 17

Four days ago, I fully expected a loss.  A deflating defeat, a short week, an away game, a good opponent.  It was a recipe for disaster, or at the very best, a frustratingly close game in which the Bucs’ youth and tired legs would eventually doom them.  Instead, they come away with a surprisingly convincing road victory in which a national audience saw why the Bucs traded back into the first round to grab running back Doug Martin in this year’s draft.

Martin was sensational, patient while waiting for his blocks, explosive when the hole opened.  At one point in the third quarter, he had more yards on his own than Minnesota had as a team.  And his 64-yard touchdown on a screen pass was something Bucs fans haven’t seen since Warrick Dunn wore the red and pewter.  The Vikings finally brought everything but the kitchen sink to stop him, but by that point, the game was in hand and the Bucs were content to trade two or three yard gains for time running off the clock.

Still, when Adrian Peterson streaked 64 yards down the right sideline for a touchdown about halfway through the third quarter, that familiar, uneasy feeling started creeping in.  And when the crowd was electrified by the scuffle between Donald Penn and Jared Allen, and Allen sacked Freeman on the next play, I thought it was all about to come tumbling down again (perhaps a poor choice of words given where the game was being played).  But the defense held, and the Vikings never sniffed the end zone again until the game was pretty much decided.

The offense has now put up 28 or more points in three straight games.  Granted, they haven’t been playing the most stout defenses, but this is a team that looked like it couldn’t score 28 points combined in three games last year. Freeman still sometimes seems to think his receivers are three feet tall, but he was dynamite on the Bucs’ clinching drive, going 4 for 4 on third down as the Bucs killed more than eight minutes off the clock and scored a touchdown to put the game away.  And while the defense gave up 123 yards to Peterson, more than half of that came on his long touchdown run, so I’ll take it.  He didn’t kill them, and Christian Ponder certainly wasn’t going to, so it was a case of the defense bending but not breaking.  They also produced three turnovers and harassed Ponder all night.

So now the Bucs go to 3-4 and have proven they aren’t going to be an easy out for anyone.  There’s a stretch of winnable games coming up, and even though the team is under .500, I feel good about where they are.  There’s been steady improvement, and a consistent competitive attitude.  Greg Schiano wasn’t going to completely turn this thing around in seven games, and I never expected him to.  But it’s good to see the roots taking hold.  At the very least, the team is entertaining to watch, which is only going to help put fans in the seats.  More wins like tonight will bring out even more.